CEBM BLOGS & MEDIA ARTICLES
COVID-19. Can Historical Antivirals Be of Use?
We hope that the availability of this historical record will aid the search for possible treatments against COVID-19 based on molecules that have shown promise in the past and test them in larger population trials.
COVID-19 – The Tipping Point
A quick look at the distribution of SARS 2 cases around southern Europe shows that viral circulation is widespread. Higher incidence may be explained (at least in part) by the old adage “seek and thou shall find”.
COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic?
we thought we would try to answer an important question: what is the proportion of people with SARS-COV-2 who are asymptomatic?
Problems in identifying the origins of an outbreak
The most famous attempt at pinpointing the origin of an outbreak from the distribution of cases is John Snow’s iconic map of the 1854 Cholera outbreak with an epicentre in Soho.
Covid 19 - Modelling the models
All models, be they prospective or retrospective, if they are based on scientific principles have substantial uncertainty as to their starting point and are incompatible with oracle-like statements of certainty.
SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19
We discuss evidence in SARs, SARs-CoV-2 and Influenza and the relationship of viral load and severity of the disease. We then present a summary of the sources that verify current healthcare workers who have died across different countries.
Are COVID-19 patients in hospital or admitted to hospital?
It has become common for the UK government daily briefings to include one slide that shows data relating to COVID-19 patients in hospital.
COVID-19 – The great plague of Lombardy – A Not so Distant Resonance Chamber
What happened in Lombardy (the richest and most densely populated region of Italy) in the late winter of 2019/20 will be the topic of future commentary.
Is Lombardy the widow of Hampstead?
We now require a series of hypotheses that can be tested to shed light on the transmission dynamics. We should use this unique opportunity to use the extraordinary to shed light on the ecology of COVID-19
What does RCGP surveillance tell us about COVID-19 in the community
The RCGP surveillance data reports trends for Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), along with weekly data on COVID-19 case investigations.
COVID-19 – Tracking European Mortality
Comparing the excess death curve with that of previous seasons we see the trend is consistent with previous outbreaks.
COVID 19 – The Widow of Hampstead Revisited
The events of February 2020 in two epicentres, Codogno in the province of Lodi in Lombardy and Vò Euganeo in Padova in Veneto region may shed some light on the dynamics of viral transmission.
Effect of Latitude on COVID-19
We recently conducted a rapid review of evidence to explore if climate conditions may influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Six Countries: Three-quarters of the COVID Deaths
As of the 26th April, six countries accounted for 155,457 out of 206,008 (75.5%) COVID-19 deaths.
Covid 19 Epidemic “Waves”
One recurring theme of the COVID coverage is the fear (or the firm prediction) of second or third waves of the disease.
COVID 19 – Nova et Vetera: Lazaretts of Venice
The contrast between the new and the old is valuable for understanding the current outbreak
COVID-19: Unravelling the Uncertainties
Our so-called ‘plans’ for dealing with the outbreak have not survived contact with COVID-19.
COVID-19: Re-establishing ‘Fever Hospitals’
Given the current problems with the COVID-19 outbreak, in countries such as the UK and Italy (which have far too few hospital beds – see the table), we need to re-establish ‘fever hospitals’.
COVID 19 - Understanding the Unknown in Acute Respiratory Infections
Several different sources show that a large proportion of pathogens implicated in respiratory infections are unknown. This could be because the ILI has no recognised agent, or…
COVID-19: Have we forgotten our children in all this?
Most governments around the world have temporarily closed educational institutions in an attempt to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.’
Let’s bring back Britain’s fever hospitals
A century ago, there were hundreds of so-called ‘fever hospitals’ dotted across Britain. These small institutions were built for diseases of a bygone age – smallpox, scarlet fever and typhus – but were designed for precisely the same problems we face today.
Don’t place too much faith in models predicting another coronavirus wave
There is much concern about a second, third or even fourth wave of Covid-19, implying an inevitable increase in the numbers infected.
Could mass testing for Covid-19 do more harm than good?
Detection of viruses using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) is helpful so long as its accuracy can be understood: it offers the capacity to detect RNA in minute quantities, but whether that RNA represents infectious virus is another matter.
Dr. Tom Jefferson's Articles Published in Telegraph.Co.Uk
TRANSMISSION OF SARS-COV-2
(work ongoing for complete synopsis, see https://www.cebm.ox.ac.uk/research/transmission-of-sars-cov-2)
Heneghan, C., Spencer, E., Brassey, J., & Jefferson, T. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 and the Role of Orofecal Transmission: Systematic Review. medRxiv, 2020.08.04.20168054. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.04.20168054
Heneghan CJ, Spencer EA, Brassey J et al. SARS-CoV-2 and the role of airborne transmission: a systematic review [version 3]. F1000Research 2022, 10:232 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52091.3
SARS-CoV-2 and the role of orofecal transmission: a systematic review. Heneghan CJ, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Onakpoya IJ, Evans DH, Conly JM, Jefferson T. F1000Res. 2021 Mar 24;10:231. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.51592.2
SARS-CoV-2 and the role of fomite transmission: a systematic review. Onakpoya IJ, Heneghan CJ, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Evans DH, Conly JM, Jefferson T. F1000Res. 2021 Mar 24;10:233. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.51590.3
SARS-CoV-2 and the role of close contact in transmission: a systematic review. Onakpoya IJ, Heneghan CJ, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Evans DH, Conly JM, Jefferson T. F1000Res. 2021 Apr 9;10:280. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.52439.3
Onakpoya, I. J., Heneghan, C. J., Spencer, E. A., Brassey, J., Rosca, E. C., Maltoni, S., Plüddemann, A., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., & Jefferson, T. (2022). Viral Cultures for Assessing Fomites Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a Systematic. medRxiv, 2022.01.26.22269917. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.26.22269917
Letter to Editor. Re: Rufino de Sousa et al., 2022. Detection and isolation of airborne SARS-CoV-2 in a hospital setting. Indoor Air, 32 (3), e13023 Revision 6 September 2022. Jefferson T, Evans DH, Conly JM, Heneghan CJ. Indoor Air. 2022 Oct;32(10):e13128. doi: 10.1111/ina.13128. PMID: 36305057
Viral cultures for assessing fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Onakpoya IJ, Heneghan CJ, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Rosca EC, Maltoni S, Plüddemann A, Evans DH, Conly JM, Jefferson T. J Hosp Infect. 2022 Dec;130:63-94. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2022.09.007. PMID: 36115620
Rosca, E., Heneghan, C., Spencer, E., Brassey, J., Plüddemann, A., Onakpoya, I., Evans, D., Conly, J., & Jefferson, T. (2021). Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 associated with aircraft travel: a systematic review (Version 1). medRxiv, 2021.06.03.21258274. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.03.21258274
Rosca, E. C., Heneghan, C., Spencer, E. A., Brassey, J., Plüddemann, A., Onakpoya, I. J., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., & Jefferson, T. (2021). Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 associated with cruise ship travel: protocol for a systematic review (Version 1). medRxiv, 2021.10.11.21264724. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.11.21264724
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 associated with aircraft travel: a systematic review. Rosca EC, Heneghan C, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Onakpoya IJ, Evans DH, Conly JM, Jefferson T. J Travel Med. 2021 Oct 11;28(7):taab133. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taab133
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with Cruise Ship Travel: A Systematic Review. Rosca EC, Heneghan C, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Onakpoya IJ, Evans D, Conly JM, Jefferson T. Trop Med Infect Dis. 2022 Oct 9;7(10):290. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed7100290
Jefferson, T., Plüddemann, A., Spencer, E., Brassey, J., Rosca, E., Onakpoya, I., Evans, D., Conly, J., & Heneghan, C. (2021). The evidence on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 from pre- and asymptomatic cases: protocol for a systematic review (Version 2). medRxiv, 2021.05.06.21256615. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.06.21256615
Jefferson, T., Spencer, E. A., Brassey, J., Onakpoya, I. J., Rosca, E. C., Plüddemann, A., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., & Heneghan, C. J. (2021). Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from pre and asymptomatic infected individuals. A systematic review. medRxiv, 2021.07.28.21261254. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261254
Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) from pre and asymptomatic infected individuals: a systematic review. Jefferson T, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Onakpoya IJ, Rosca EC, Plüddemann A, Evans DH, Conly JM, Heneghan CJ. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2022 Feb;28(2):178-189. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2021.10.015
Plüddemann, A., Spencer, E. A., Heneghan, C. J., Brassey, J., Onakpoya, I. J., Rosca, E. C., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., & Jefferson, T. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 and the role of vertical transmission from infected pregnant women to their fetuses: systematic review. medRxiv, 2021.06.30.21259750. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.30.21259750
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from pre and asymptomatic infected individuals: a systematic review update. Jefferson T, Spencer EA, Onakpoya IJ, Plüddemann A, Conly JM, Heneghan CJ. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2022 Nov;28(11):1511-1512. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2022.06.016
Jefferson, T., Spencer, E., Brassey, J., & Heneghan, C. (2020). Viral cultures for COVID-19 infectivity assessment – a systematic review (Update 4). medRxiv, 2020.08.04.20167932. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.04.20167932
Jefferson, T., Spencer, E. A., Conly, J. M., Rosca, E. C., Maltoni, S., Brassey, J., Onakpoya, I. J., Evans, D. H., Heneghan, C. J., & Plüddemann, A. (2022). Viral Cultures, Polymerase Chain Reaction Cycle Threshold Values and Viral Load Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Infectious Potential Assessment in Hematopoietic Stem Cell and Solid Organ Transplant Patients: A Systematic Review. medRxiv, 2022.03.01.22271684. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.01.22271684
Viral Cultures for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infectivity Assessment: A Systematic Review. Jefferson T, Spencer EA, Brassey J, Heneghan C. Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Dec 6;73(11):e3884-e3899. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1764
Heneghan, C. J., Spencer, E. A., Brassey, J., Rosca, E. C., Plüddemann, A., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., Maltoni, S., Jefferson, T., & Onakpoya, I. J. (2022). Viral Cultures for Assessing Airborne Transmission of SARs-CoV-2: a Systematic Review Protocol (version 1). medRxiv, 2022.01.28.22270021. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.28.22270021
Jefferson, T., Spencer, E. A., Maltoni, S., Brassey, J., Onakpoya, I. J., Rosca, E. C., Plüddemann, A., Evans, D. H., Conly, J. M., & Heneghan, C. J. (2022). Viral cultures, PCR Cycle threshold values and viral load estimation for COVID-19 infectious potential assessment in transplant patients: systematic review – Protocol Version 3 December 2021. medRxiv, 2021.12.30.21268509
Jefferson, T., Dietrich, M., Brassey, J., & Heneghan, C. (2022). PCR Testing in the UK During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic – Evidence from FOI Requests. medRxiv, 2022.04.28.22274341. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.28.22274341
A Hierarchical Framework for Assessing Transmission Causality of Respiratory Viruses. Jefferson T, Heneghan CJ, Spencer E, Brassey J, Plüddemann A, Onakpoya I, Evans D, Conly J. Viruses. 2022 Jul 22;14(8):1605. doi: 10.3390/v14081605
Viral Cultures, Cycle Threshold Values and Viral Load Estimation for Assessing SARS-CoV-2 Infectiousness in Haematopoietic Stem Cell and Solid Organ Transplant Patients: A Systematic Review. Jefferson T, Spencer EA, Conly JM, Rosca EC, Maltoni S, Brassey J, Onakpoya IJ, Evans DH, Heneghan CJ, Plüddemann A. J Hosp Infect. 2022 Dec 3:S0195-6701(22)00372-3. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2022.11.018
Why COVID-19 modelling of progression and prevention fails to translate to the real-world. Heneghan CJ, Jefferson T. Adv Biol Regul. 2022 Dec;86:100914. doi: 10.1016/j.jbior.2022.100914
Serial Cycle Threshold to Assess the Infectious Potential of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review. Rosca EC, Oke J, Jefferson T, et al. Epidemiology and Infection. Published online 2026:1-56. doi:10.1017/S0950268826101484